2002 Text 3??

　　Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

　　The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.

　　Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.

　　Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies — to which heavy industry has shifted — have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.

　　One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

51. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is ________.
　　[A] global inflation
　　[B] reduction in supply
　　[C] fast growth in economy
　　[D] Iraq's suspension of exports

52. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if ________.
　　[A] price of crude rises
　　[B] commodity prices rise
　　[C] consumption rises
　　[D] oil taxes rise

53. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries ________.
　　[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive
　　[B] income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices
　　[C] manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed
　　[D] oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP

54. We can draw a conclusion from the text that ________.
　　[A] oil-price shocks are less shocking now
　　[B] inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks
　　[C] energy conservation can keep down the oil prices
　　[D] the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry

55. From the text we can see that the writer seems ________.
　　[A] optimistic
　　[B] sensitive
　　[C] gloomy
　　[D] scared


重點詞匯：

decline /di5klain/ （n.v.下降；衰落v.謝絕）←de向下+cline傾斜；同根詞：incline（v.傾斜；傾向于n.斜坡）←in(=to)+cline。People decline invitations when they are "indisposed" physically, and I wish they would do likewise when they fell indisposed emotionally.人們在身體“不適”時謝絕邀請，我希望他們在覺得情緒上不適時也能同樣做。We perceive when love begins and when it declines by our embarrassment when alone together.我們由僅余兩人時的局促不安察覺愛情于何時發(fā)生，何時減退。

OPEC（石油輸出國組織）即Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries。

scary /5skZEri/ （引起驚慌的）即scar(e)+y，scare（n.v.驚恐），-y形容詞后綴。More powerful creation may scare many people away, but more intrepid people will be captivated by it.更加強有力的作品可能嚇退許多人，但比較勇敢的人們會被它吸引住。

quadruple /5kwCdrupl/ （四倍的；使成四倍；四倍）即quadru+ple，quadru-前綴“四”(=quarter)，ple詞根“折疊”，complicated所含的詞根plic也是“折疊”的意思（參2002年Text 2）。

triple /5tripl/ （三倍的；使成三倍；三倍）即tri+ple，tri-前綴“三”，如triangle（三角形）←tri+angle角。

inflation /in5fleiFEn/ （膨脹；通貨膨脹；自夸）即in+flat+ion，in-(=into)，flat詞根“吹”，-ion名詞后綴，故“往里面吹”→膨脹。Inflation: When nobody has enough money because everybody has too much.通貨膨脹：由于人人錢太多而誰的錢都不夠的時候。inflation — the period when the standard of living continues to rise until the people can't afford it 通貨膨脹——生活水平持續(xù)上升直到人們負擔不起的時期。

gloom /^lu:m/ （v.n.陰暗；憂愁），形容詞為gloomy /5^lu:mi/ （陰暗的；陰沉的），那首據(jù)說有殺人魔力的歌曲就叫Gloomy Sunday。Love is the flame of life, without it, everything in life becomes gloomy.愛是生命的火焰，沒有它，生命中的一切都變得暗淡無光。

doom /du:m/ （n.厄運v.注定）。A society that gives to one class all the opportunities for leisure, and to another all the burdens of work, dooms both classes to spiritual sterility.一個將閑暇的全部機會都給予一個階級，而將勞作的全部重負都給予另一個階級的社會，注定了兩個階級都處于精神貧瘠。

suspend /sEs5pend/ （v.懸掛；延緩）即sus+pend，sus-前綴“在下面”，pend詞根“掛”，故“暫且掛在下面不管”→擱置；名詞形式為suspension /sEs5penFEn/ ←sus+pens掛+ion。The best of men cannot suspend their fate.最好的人也無法推遲死亡。

consequence /5kCnsikwEns/ （后果；重要性）←con+sequ(=follow)+ence。It is easy to dodge our responsibilities, but we cannot dodge the consequences of dodging our responsibilities.逃避責任很容易，但逃避責任的后果我們卻無法逃避。With books, as with companions, it is of more consequence to know which to avoid, than which to chuse（chuse是古英語=choose）.讀書如交友，懂得避開哪些比懂得選擇哪些更重要。

conservation /7kCnsE(:)5veiFEn/ （保護；保存；守恒）即con+serv(e)+ation，con-前綴“全部”，serve詞根“保持”(=keep)，-ation名詞后綴；動詞為conserve←con+serve。A state without the means of some change is without the means of its conservation.不具備某種變革手段的國家也不具備保存自己的手段。

energy-intensive 能源密集型。

consumption /kEn5sQmpFEn/ （消費量，消耗）即consum(e)+ption，consume（v.消費，消耗），-ption名詞后綴，m后加p便于發(fā)音，如assume（假定；承擔；呈現(xiàn)）→assumption、presume（v.假設）→presumption。Conspicuous consumption of valuable goods is a means of reputability to the gentleman of leisure.引人注目地揮霍貴重財物是有閑紳士取得名聲的手段。We have no more right to consume happiness without producing it than to consume wealth without producing it.我們沒有權利享用幸福而不創(chuàng)造幸福，正像沒有權力享用財富而不創(chuàng)造財富一樣。

consultancy /kEn5sQltEnsi/ （顧問工作；咨詢業(yè)）←consult+ancy名詞后綴；consult（v.商量；查詢；會診）←比consul（領事）在最后多字母t，“他(t)去找‘領事’‘商量’”，名詞為consultation←consult+ation名詞后綴。Well, one can always consult a man and ask him: "Would you like your head cut off tomorrow?" and after he has said: "I would rather not", cut it off. Consultation is a vagues and elastic term.是的，什么時候都可以跟一個人商量，問他：“你愿意明天被砍頭嗎？”接著，在他說了“我不愿意”之后，砍掉他的腦袋。磋商是個含糊的帶彈性的詞?！@是英國老流氓丘吉爾說的，意思是：既然不愿意明天砍頭，那么就在今天砍吧。

GDP（國民生產總值）即Gross Domestic Product。

OECD（經濟合作與發(fā)展組織）即Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development。

estimate /5estimeit/ （v.n.估計，估價）。True modesty does not consist in an ignorance of our merits, but in a due estimate of it.真正的謙虛不在于對自己的長處一無所知，而在于對它們的恰當評價。

excess（/5ekses/ n.過量 /ik5ses/ a.額外的）即ex+cess，ex-前綴“出”，cess詞根“走”，故“走到范圍之外的”→過量的；動詞形式為exceed（超過）←ex+ceed走。The best things carried to excess are wrong.最好的東西超過限度也會變壞。He is poor whose expenses exceed his income.開支超過收入的人就是窮人。

sizable /5saizEbl/ （相當大的）←siz(e)+able；size（大小，尺寸）。You can tell the size of a man by the size of the things that make him mad.根據(jù)使一個人發(fā)怒的事情的大小，可以判斷這個人的氣量。

significant /si^5nifikEnt/ （有意義的；重要的）即signify（y變形為i）表示+cant形容詞后綴，“值得表示的”→有意義的；signify即sign+ify，sign標記，-ify動詞后綴，“作標記”→表示。An art is only great and significant if it is one that all may enjoy.藝術作品只有在所有人都可以欣賞時才是偉大的、重要的。Love has various lodgings; the same word does not always signify the same thing.愛擁有形形色色的住所，同一個詞不總是意味著同樣的東西。

難句解析：

①Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short time.
▲該句是一個含有插入成分的單句。主語是Strengthening economic growth，謂語是could push，插入成分是一個時間狀語。
△本句閱讀的重點是要首先抓住主句的基本結構。

②In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
▲該句是一個復雜句，由兩個單句構成，中間用so來表示前后的因果關系。
△本句閱讀的重點是一些短語和詞組。account for占…的部分；muted原意是“沉默的，被弄啞的”，在文章里的意思是“不太顯著的”；pump price油品零售價格。

③Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption.
▲該句是一個簡單句，只是主語復雜一點，其謂語部分是have reduced oil consumption。
△本句閱讀的重點在主語，注意它里面有三個并列成分：Energy conservation，a shift to other fuels，第三個是a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries。

④The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP.
▲本句的主句是The OECD estimates... that，本句復雜的地方在其賓語部分，里面有一個條件狀語if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998，而主句是后面的部分，其中的主語this指代的是if條件句。
△本句閱讀的重點在于抓住句子的主干。

⑤One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand.
▲本句的主句是One more reason is that...。比較復雜的是其以that引導的表語從句，它的主語是it，指代的是the rise in oil prices。
△本句閱讀的重點在于了解一些短語的意思：lose sleep over因…而失眠；occur against the background of...發(fā)生在…的背景之下。

試題解析：

51. [B]
　　此題的難度合適，區(qū)分度好。
　　本題的答題依據(jù)是第一段的第二句話，“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December.”看懂了這句話，這道題就很容易了。

52. [D]
　　此題的難度合適，區(qū)分度好。
　　本題的關鍵信息在第三段的第三句話“In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price，so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.”意思是說：在歐洲，汽油的零售價中稅占到五分之四，因此稅的增加會導致汽油價格的（成比例）猛漲，而原油價格的變化帶來的影響不會很大。

53. [D]
　　此題較易，區(qū)分度很好。
　　本題的答題依據(jù)是第四段中的下面這句話“The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25%-0.5% of GDP.”這是一道比較容易的題。

54. [A]
　　此題的難度合適，區(qū)分度很好。
　　本題的答題依據(jù)是全文的最后一段，強調這次油價上漲與20世紀70年代的上漲不同，也就是沒有70年代的那一次那么可怕。

55. [A]
　　此題比較容易，區(qū)分度很好。
　　本題是一道比較容易的題。答題依據(jù)貫穿全文，尤其是第三段和最后一段的第一句話，強調人們不必擔心此次油價上漲，因為這一次的情況與20世紀70年代不同。

全文翻譯：

　　過去經濟衰落的日子會不會重來？自從石油輸出國組織在3月決定減少原油供應，原油的價格便從去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到約26美元一桶。這次近3倍的漲價令人想起了1973年和1979～1980年兩次可怕的石油恐慌，當時的油價分別漲了4倍和近3倍。前兩次的油價暴漲都導致了兩位數(shù)的通貨膨脹和全球性的經濟衰退。那么這次警告人們厄運來臨的頭版新聞都到哪里去了呢？
　　本周伊拉克暫停石油出口，這使油價又一次上揚。強勁的經濟增長勢頭，隨著北半球冬季的到來，有可能在短期內使石油價格漲得更高。
　　然而，我們有充分的理由預期這次油價暴漲給經濟帶來的影響不會像20世紀70年代那么嚴重。與70年代相比，現(xiàn)在多數(shù)國家的原油價格占汽油價格的份額要小很多。在歐洲，稅金在汽油零售價的比例高達4/5，因此，即使原油價格發(fā)生很大的波動，汽油價格所受的影響也不會像過去那么顯著。
　　發(fā)達國家對石油的依賴性也不如從前，因此對油價的波動也就不會那么敏感。能源儲備、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工業(yè)的重要性的降低，都減少了石油消耗量。軟件、咨詢及移動通訊消耗的石油，比鋼鐵、汽車行業(yè)少得多。發(fā)達國家國民生產總值中每一個美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。國際經合組織在最近一期的《經濟展望》中估計，如果油價持續(xù)一年維持在22美元左右，與1998年的13美元一桶相比，這也只會使發(fā)達國家的石油進口在支出上增加GDP的0.25％～0.5％。這還不到1974年或1980年收入減少部分的1/4。另一方面，進口石油的新興國家由于轉向了重工業(yè)，消耗能量更大，因此可能會受到石油危機的強烈影響。
　　另外一個不應因油價上升而失眠的原因是，與20世紀70年代不同，這次油價上升不是發(fā)生在普遍的物價暴漲及全球需求過旺背景之下。世界上很多地區(qū)才剛剛走出經濟衰落。《經濟學家》的商品價格指數(shù)與一年前相比總的來說也沒有什么變化。1973年的商品價格躍升了70％，而1979年也上升了近30％。